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The Flash Storage Revolution (4/2009)

Part 1: The Growth of Flash

See Part 2: What's Next for Flash

    by Douglas Dixon

Flash storage continues its march through the consumer electronics and computer industries, as it re-doubles in capacity and drops in price. Behind it leaves the wreckage of other, once proud, technologies and products -- the floppy disk wiped from computers by the USB drive, the CD Audio disc humbled by portable flash players, and tape-based video cameras that now seem clunky compared to smaller flash cams. And next in the sights: computer hard drives giving way to faster and more rugged Solid-State Drives and mini Netbooks replacing notebook computers. This rapid progression in flash memory has driven the development of all the fun portable devices that have quickly became indispensible parts of our daily lives. 

This article provides notes for my talk on The Flash Storage Revolution, tracing the growth of flash memory in a variety of CE and computer markets. It includes market data, chronologies of technical developments, and sample products on each area.

Originally prepared as notes for my presentation to the Princeton University Information Technology Seminar, April 15, 2009
    Princeton IT Seminar series -
www.princeton.edu/~eos/lnl.shtml
    Princeton Blog (and podcast) of the talk -
         http://blogs.princeton.edu/itsacademic/2009/04/flash_forward_the_rise_of_small_tech_gadgets.html

A preview was published in the U.S. 1 Newspaper, April 15, 2009
    www.princetoninfo.com/index.php?option=com_us1more&Itemid=6&key=04-15-2009%20gadgets

See the links to my Digital Media Galleries for more details on these and related products.

See Demo products


Contents

Part 1: The Growth of Flash

Part 2: What's Next for Flash

For earlier round-ups of interesting products, see my related articles:

References:


Consumer Electronics Market


Market Sizes


Portable Devices - Total units sold

  •   30 M - Apple iPhone / iPod touch     (Apple 3/09)
  •   50 M - Sony PSP         (Sony 1/09)
  •   96 M - Nintendo DS     (Nintendo 12/08)
  • 160 M - Apple iPods
  • 600 M - Internet-connected PCs
  •   2.5 B - Mobile phones worldwide (500 M with Internet service)
  •   2.5 B - 3G cellular subscribers worldwide by 2013

CE Products - Annual Sales 2008

  •   40 M - GPS / Portable navigation (est. 50 '09)
  • 120 M - DVD / Blu-ray player/recorders (est. same '09)
  • 135 M - Laptop PC (est. 147 '09)
  • 226 M - Television (est. 232 '09)
  •   1.2 B - Mobile phone handsets (est. slight increase '09)
  •   2.5 B - Units of CE products sell in 2009 -- $700B ($695 in '08)
  • From Global CE Sales & Forecasts, Consumer Electronics Association, CES 1/09 - www.ce.org

Consumer Electronics - Revenue Product Mix

Overall:    25% Mobile phone, 20% TV, 15% PCs, 6% Digital Imaging
Portable: 25% Mobile phone,         10% Laptops, 6% Digital Imaging, 2% Portable players, 1.5% GPS ...


    From Global CE Sales & Forecasts, Consumer Electronics Association, CES 1/09 - www.ce.org


Consumer Electronics - Market Penetration

Year when product reached 25% household penetration


    From Trends to Watch For 2008, Consumer Electronics Association, CES 1/08 - www.ce.org

Years to product reaching ~25% household penetration

Year 
Introduced
Year 
at 25%
Years
 to 25%
Product
1980 1983 3 Compact Audio Systems
1983 1986 3 Portable Tape Recorders
1974 1986 12 VCR Decks
1982 1989 7 Telephone Answering Devices
1980 1990 10 Cordless Telephones
1984 1991 7 Analog Color TV with Stereo
1980 1991 11 Personal Computers
1983 1991 8 Total CD Players
1980 1992 12 PC Printers
1980 1993 13 Aftermarket PC Monitors
1984 1995 11 Cellular Phones
1985 1996 11 Camcorders
1986 1996 10 VCR Decks with Stereo
1987 1997 10 Pagers
1996 2001 5 Home Theater-in-a-Box
1996 2002 6 Digital Cameras
1990 2003 13 Analog TV/VCR Combinations
1986 2004 18 DBS Satellite

Consumer Electronics - Market Saturation

Wireless phones and digital cameras are replacement purchases


    From State of the Industry, Consumer Electronics Association, CES 1/09 - www.ce.org


The Growth of Storage

Inexorable Trends -- Lower price, growing capacity


Growth of Storage - 10 Years - 1998 - 2008 (SanDisk)

  • From 1 file on a floppy disk - to 1,000 documents on a flash drive
  • From 36 photos on a roll of film - to 5,000 images on a memory card
  • From 20 songs on an analog tape - to 5,000 tunes on a pocket media player

Moore's Law (1965) - Chip transistors double every two years


So how fast is technology changing? Moore's Law -- actually more of an observation by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore -- states that the number of transistors on a chip will double about every two years. Moore made his prediction in 1965, and it's held true for the past 40-some years.

Moore's Law Original Graph

In 1965, Gordon Moore sketched out his prediction of the pace of silicon technology. 

Decades later, Moore's Law remains true, driven largely by Intel's unparalleled silicon expertise.

Copyright © 2005 Intel Corporation

Moore's Law Transistor Count Chart

  • 1979 - Intel 8088 ( original IBM PC) - 29,000 transistors, 5 MHz
  • 30 years - Multi-core processors over 3 GHz, manufacturing process over 1.9 billion transistors

 
    Copyright © 2005 Intel Corporation
    PDF - http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Printed_Materials/Moores_Law_Backgrounder.pdf

Moore's Law Timeline


   Copyright © 2005 Intel Corporation
   PDF - http://download.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/MLTimeline.pdf


Storage Growth -- Capacity doubling annually


Think that processing doubling every two years is impressive? Storage technology is developing even faster -- Over the past decade the storage density of magnetic disk has doubled annually (known as Kryder's Law). So now we've come to think it normal that hard drives and flash memory cards and USB drives will double in capacity every year or so -- and while also dropping in price.

Flash Beating Moore's Law (SanDisk)

Flash technology has moved through 9 generations in 10 years, re-doubling in capacity


    From The Flash Memory Revolution, SanDisk, www.sandisk.com
        Flash Memory Summit, 8/2008, www.flashmemorysummit.com

Dramatic Flash Price Reductions: Key To New Markets  (SanDisk)

In 2006, $14 bought a 128 MB SD memory card, and now that same price buys 4 GB -- five re-doublings in only three years. Plus, for the same price you can get the same 4 GB on a ridiculously tiny microSD card, at a quarter of the size and half the thickness. 

That 4 GB card can hold some 1000 songs, 10,000 photos, a couple of two-hour movies, or an hour or two of full high-definition video. 


    From The Flash Memory Revolution, SanDisk, www.sandisk.com
        Flash Memory Summit, 8/2008, www.flashmemorysummit.com

Top


Flash Storage

Memory cards to USB drives to hard drive replacements


Flash Memory Technology

Flash memory is used for devices including MP3 players, USB drives, removable storage cards, cell phones. 
Its name comes from the fact that flash memory can be erased very quickly (like the speed of the flash on a camera)
  • RAM (Random Access Memory) - Used for main memory in computers (DRAM)
  • Volatile memory - Data is lost after the power is switched off
  • Non-volatile memory (NVM) - Data is retained in memory when the power is off
  • Flash is is a type of NVM that is very suitable for battery-operated, mobile and handheld devices
        or as a replacement for a hard disk drive in laptops
  • NOR - Random access - most suitable for program storage and execution
        Enables direct access to each memory cell - Fast random access, but slower write speed
        Uses silicon less efficiently, resulting in higher cost per bit
  • NAND - Sequential access, denser storage - most suitable for mass data storage
        Enables sequential access to memory cells - Faster write speed
        Uses silicon more efficiently, resulting in lower cost per bit,
  • NAND has far outpaced NOR, due to faster write and erase performance and lower cost

References


Expanding Flash Market -- Card -> Mobile  -> PC

Flash memory is growing beyond its roots in consumer electronics (digital still cameras and portable devices

Consumer usage of flash began with memory cards (for digital cameras) and USB drives, and then shifted to mobile uses for portable media players and cellular phones. And now flash is expanding into the computer market with SSD drives.


    From Memory Storage Through The Global Recession, Samsung Semiconductor, 
                www.samsung.com/us/business/semiconductor
        at Storage Visions 2009, http://www.storagevisions.com/2009/Book/Jim%20Elliot.pdf


Flash Applications

Demand for flash continues strong for its original uses for Memory cards, USB drives, and Digital cameras
New growing markets include Mobile phones and Sold state drives


    From NAND Insights Q1/09, Forward Insights, www.forward-insights.com


Flash Memory Chronology & Products


Flash Memory Chronology

  • circa 1980 - Flash memory invented at Toshiba (NOR and NAND), presented IEEE 1984 IEDM
  • 1988 - First commercial NOR type flash chip introduced by Intel
        CompactFlash removable media format was originally based on NOR
  • 1987 - NAND flash announced by Toshiba at the International Electron Devices Meeting
        SmartMedia was first NAND-based removable media format 
  • 2000 - First commercial USB flash drives

Flash Memory Card Formats

The original SD (Secure Digital) card format supported up to 2 GB of storage. 
Current SDHC (SD High Capacity) cards support up to 32 GB for around $129.
The new SDXC (eXtended Capacity) format increases the maximum possible storage capacity up to 2 TB. 
That's a lot of space, even for HD video -- a 2 TB card can store some 100 HD movies, 480 hours of HD video, or 136,000 fine-grade photos.


    
miniSD - 60% smaller
SD Card (Secure Digital) - Stamp

- SD - to 2 GB
- SDHC - to 32 GB (SD High Capacity)          -  2 -    25 MB/sec
- SDXC - to   2 TB (SD eXtended Capacity) - 50 - 300 MB/sec

 
microSD - Fingernail

SD Memory Card Pricing: SD (SDHC) / miniSD / microSD

Cost per GB from $50 to under $5 in 3 years
(Prices for SanDisk and others - www.jr.com)

  4/09

64 M

128

256

512

1 GB

2 GB

4 GB

6 GB

8 GB

16 G

32 G

SD/SDHC

 

    $9   $7 $14/39   $34/79 $64 $129

micro SD

 

      $4 $7/19 $14   $29/54 $99  

  11/08

64 M

128

256

512

1 GB

2 GB

4 GB

6 GB

8 GB

16 G

32 G

SD /
SDHC

 

    $9 $7 $9
$2
4
$14
$19
  $19
$99
$29/69
$149
$149

mini SD

 

    ($5 $5 $9)          

micro SD

 

      $9
$2
4
$19
$44
($9)
$24/44
$39 ($19)
$49/79
$99  

  11/07

64

128

256

512

1 GB

2 GB

4 GB

6 GB

8 GB

 

 

SD

 

 

 

$14

$14/34

$34/44

$54/129

 

$99/179

   

mini SD

 

$15

$12

$12

$44

$79

 

$89

 

   

micro SD

 

 

 

 

$19/52

$49

 

 

$149

   

  1/07

64

128

256

512

1 GB

2 GB

4 GB

 

 

 

 

SD

 

 

$12

$19

$19/49

$39/79

$89

 

 

 

 

mini SD

 

$16

$14

$19

$49

$54

$99

 

 

 

 

micro SD

 

 

$17

$21

$34/$59

$59

 

 

 

 

 

  9/06

64

128

256

512

1 GB

2 GB

4 GB

 

 

 

 

SD

$9

 

$14/
$39

$29

$34/49
$64

$44/79/
$99

$149

 

 

 

 

mini SD

 

$19

$14

$29

$44,59

$64/79

 

 

 

 

 

micro SD

 

$14

$14

$29

$69

 

 

 

 

 

 

  3/06

64

128

256

512

1 GB

2 GB

 

 

 

 

 

SD

 

$14

$19

$39

$59

$99

 

 

 

 

 

mini SD

 

 

 

$39

$59

 

 

 

 

 

 

micro SD

 

$14

$19

$39

$59

$79

 

 

 

 

 

Top


Flash Displaces Magnetic Storage

From 1.44 MB floppy (1987) & Micro hard drive  to 64 GB USB Drive


Storage Pricing: Flash, Hard Disk, Mobile Hard Disk


    From Flash Memory Technology Direction, WinHEC 2007, Micron Technology
        http://download.micron.com/pdf/presentations/events/WinHEC_Cooke.pdf


USB Drive Pricing

Price per GB from $70 to under $3 -- in 4 years
(Prices for SanDisk, Kingston, Lexar, and others - www.jr.com)

USB

256

512

1 GB

2 GB

4 GB

8 GB

16 G

32 G

64 G

 4/09

 -

 -

 $10  $7  $19/24  $34 $59/64  $109 $149/199

11/08

 -

 -

- - - - - $116 $177

10/08

 -

 -

$9

$14 $19/24/34 $34/49 $79 $139 -

11/07

 -

 -

 -

$29/79

$49/134

$132/149

-

-

-

  1/07

$14

$19

$29/34

$49

$84/$129

 

 

 

 

  3/06

$19

$34

$54

$79

$149

 

 

 

 

  9/06

$19

$24/34

$39/49

$39/79

$129

 

 

 

 

10/05

$24

$39

$69

$159

 

 

 

 

 


Floppy Disk -- 3 1/2 inch - 1982 - 1990's

Once-ubiquitous floppy drive was ejected five or so years ago by the much more convenient USB flash drive


The floppy transitioned from the flexible 5 1/4 inch format from the late 1970's to the more rugged 3 1/2 inch format in the mid 80's, which then evolved to the high-density 3 1/2 inch disk of the late 80's, with a whopping 1.44 MB capacity. 


3 1/2 inch floppy drive

  • 1976 - 5 1/2 inch - Shugart; 1978 - DD 360 KB
  • 1982 - 3 1/2 inch - Sony variant; 1984 - 400 SS, 800 DS
  • 1987 - 3 1/2 inch - HD - 1.44 MB
  • 1998 - 2 billion floppy disks sold, 
        Recording Media Industries Association of Japan
  • 1998 - Apple iMac without floppy disk drive
  • 2003 - Dell higher-end systems without floppy
  • Wikipedia - Floppy Disk
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floppy_disk

USB Flash Drive Chronology & Products

Early USB flash drives from 2000 started with 8 MB, more than 5 times the capacity of the floppy
Now available in up to 64 GB for under $200 -- again doubling faster than yearly
Issues: Performance (vs. USB 2.0), Security (encryption)


IBM DiskOnKey 8 MB USB Memory Key -- 2000

2000 - First commercial USB flash drives
 IBM 8MB USB Memory Key - 12/2000 - DiskOnKey (manufactured by M-Systems)


IBM DiskOnKey


USB Hard Disk Pocket Drives -- 2005 - 07

Used 1" hard disk. Obsoleted as flash drives expanded capacity

Imation Micro Hard Drive (2005 - 06) - Padlock design
  • 12/05 - 2 GB $159, 4 GB $189
  • 3/06 - 4 GB $119, 6 GB $119, 8 GB $149
Memorex Mega TravelDrive -- to 12 GB  (1/07)
  • Memorex - 11/07 - 4 GB $39, 6 GB $79/99, 12 GB $149
 

Verbatim Store 'n' Go Micro -- 8 GB in Half a SD Card (1/09)

Up to 8 GB of storage in literally half the size of a SD memory card
(or the length and width of two microSD cards -- and only a tiny bit thicker than a SD card)

The new development here is System in Package (SIP) technology, which integrates all the electronic components into a single sealed unit. The resulting drive is resistant to everyday handling, dust, moisture and static discharges, so you don't give up ruggedness for the small size.

  • Half the size of SD Card - 1.22" long, 0.5" wide, 0.08" thick, 0.05 ounce, 
  • New System in Package (SIP) technology, small and reliable
        Integrates all electronic components into miniaturized single sealed unit
        Resistant to everyday handling, dust, moisture and static discharges
        Small enough and tough enough to take everywhere
  • 1/09 - 2 GB $19 (orange), 4 GB $29 / $22 (green), 8 GB $49 / $32 (purple)
  • www.verbatim.com

         Find the Verbatim Store'n' Go Micro on Amazon.com


LaCie iamaKey / itsaKey -- Thin USB flash drives  (3/09)

Key design thin and rugged enough to carry on your keychain

The LaCie iamaKey is thinner but still a solid metal design, with a gold USB connector with protective edges, water and scratch resistant. The LaCie itsaKey looks like a car key, with a tough nickel surface.


  • iamaKey -Thin and durable, sturdy metal design, fits on key ring, 
        Gold SIP connector with protective edges; water and scratch resistant
        3/09 - 4 GB $17.99, 8 GB $27.99
  • itsaKey - Car key style, sturdy metal design
        Fits on key ring, tough nickel surface
        3/09 - 4 GB $14.99, 8 GB $23.99
  •  www.lacie.com

Find the  LaCie imaKey and itsaKey on Amazon.com

Top


Portable MP3 Players Displace CD Audio Disc

Digital storage has much more capacity in a much smaller size, and more convent than CD discs

While there's comfort in having a collection of your favorite music on physical CD discs, it's a lot easier exploring a music library in digital format, and listening on flash-based portable MP3 players. After all, carrying an album on a CD is terribly clumsy compared to fitting an entire collection on a microSD card -- and the CD is too big to fit in a portable player or mobile phone anyway. Portable players have also expanded well beyond MP3 audio, offer text, photos, and video, plus PDA / organizer syncing.


Total Music Market -- CD declining, Online & Mobile growing

Digital music is growing, but not enough to offset the decline in CD packaged media.


    Courtesy Futuresource Consultingwww.futuresource-consulting.com


Personal Media Player Market -- Tape to CD to Flash

Flash-based portable media players have taken over the market.


    Courtesy Futuresource Consultingwww.futuresource-consulting.com


Portable Players -- MP3 audio to Media players

"MP3 players" have expanded beyond music-only to become "Personal media players," 
with photos, videos, and organizer functions


    From Memory Storage Through The Global Recession, Samsung Semiconductor, 
                www.samsung.com/us/business/semiconductor
        at Storage Visions 2009, http://www.storagevisions.com/2009/Book/Jim%20Elliot.pdf


Portable Music Player Chronology & Products


Vinyl Records - 1940's

  • 1877 - Thomas Edison phonograph, phonograph cylinder
  • early 1900's - Gramophone records
  • circa 1925 - 75 rpm standardized speed
  • 1948 - 33 LP (Columbia), 1949 - 45's (RCA Victor)
  • Wikipedia - Gramophone record - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramophone_record

Tape Players - Sony Walkman - 1979

Sony Walkman, the TPS-L

     The first personal headphone stereo 

Sony History - www.sony.net/Fun/SH/1-18/h3.html


Audio Compact Disc - 1982

Size, capacity, convenience - plus portability
Press conference at Philips Electronics  introducing the prototype optical digital audio disc in March 1979

From: IEEE Benelux Section: IEEE Milestone for the Compact Disc Digital Audio System

www.ieee.nl/milestone.html


MP3 Players - Diamond Rio - 1998

Portable, customized  music

MPMan F10 - Summer 1998 - First portable solid state digital audio player 

The MPMan F10 was the first portable solid state digital audio player sold in the North America
Developed by SaeHan Information Systems of Korea, imported by Eiger Labs

Diamond Multimedia - Rio PMP300 - Second portable MP3 digital audio player - Oct. 1998

The Rio PMP300 from Diamond Multimedia was second solid state digital audio player, Sold 200,000 players
Diamond was sued by the RIAA in October 1998, but injunction was denied


Apple iPod - 2001

9/2008 - Apple reports over 160 million iPods sold, the world's most popular family of digital music players
3/2009 - iTunes Store is world's most popular online music, TV and movie store
    Over 250 million TV episodes purchased, over 33 million movies purchased and rented
    Catalog over 10 million songs, 40,000 TV episodes, 5,000 movies, including 1,200 HD movies
    Over 50% of TV programming purchased in HD when available

       
- Apple iPod 1 10/01 -  iPod Mini 1/04  - iPod shuffle 2/05 - iPod  nano 1 9/05

  • 10/2001 - First Apple iPod portable music player introduced , 1.8" HD, 5 GB $399
  • 1/2004 - Apple iPod Mini introduced, 1" HD, 4 GB $249
  • 1/2005 - Apple iPod shuffle introduced, flash, 512 MB $99, 1 GB $149
  • 9/2005 - Apple iPod nano introduced, flash, 2 GB $199, 4 GB $249
  • 9/2007 - Apple iPod touch introduced, flash, 8GB $299, 16 GB $399
  • Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPod
  • Apple-History.com - www.apple-history.com/?page=gallery&model=ipod
  • See Portable Media Players Gallery - Apple iPod Pricing

Apple iPod shuffle

No display, mo removable memory, non-replaceable battery
www.apple.com/ipodshuffle

Apple iPod shuffle - original (2/05) - 0.78 oz., 512 MB, $99

  • 0.78 oz., 3.3 x 0.98 x 0.33", 12 hrs battery 
  • 2/05 - 512 MB $99, 1 GB $149 (120 / 240 songs)
  • 6/05 - 512 MB $99, 1 GB $129
  • 3/06 - 512 MB $69, 1 GB $99

iPod shuffle -  2nd gen (9/06) - 0.55 oz., 1 GB, $79

  • 2/08 - 1 GB $49 (240 songs), new 2 GB $69 (500 songs)
  • 9/06, 9/07 - 1 GB $79
  • Half a cubic inch in volume, 1.62 x 1.07 x 0.41 in., 0.55 oz.
  • Circular control pad, Built-in clip on back
  • Headphone jack: also dock connector

    Find the Apple iPod shuffle (08) on Amazon.com

iPod shuffle - 3rd gen (3/09) - 0.38 oz., 4 GB, $79

  • Half the size, smaller than AA battery, remote controls, talks
  • Introduced 3/09 - 4 GB $79, silver or black
  • No controls on player -- Use remote on the right earbud cord (custom)
  • No display - VoiceOver announces artist and song title between tracks, 
        Multiple playlists - Speaks playlist names to select next to play
  • Play up to 10 hours when fully charged
  • 1.8 x 0.7 x 0.3 in. including clip,  0.38 oz., True volume: 0.26 cu in.

    Find the iPod shuffle (3rd gen) on Amazon.com


Apple iPhone / iPad Generations and Pricing  (9/13)

iPod

Flash

512M

1GB

2GB

4GB

6GB

8GB

16G

32G

64G

128

 

9/07

iPhone

-

-

-

$499

-

$599

-

-

-

-

3.5" 480x320, 4.8 oz

9/07

iPhone

-

-

-

-

-

$399

-

-

-

-

-

2/08

iPhone

-

-

-

-

-

$399

$499 

-

-

-

add 16 GB

6/08

iPhone 3G

-

-

-

-

-

$199

$299

-

-

-

3G, 2 MP cam, GPS, App Store

6/09

iPhone 3G

-

-

-

-

-

$99

x

-

-

-

-

6/09

iPhone 3Gs

-

-

-

-

-

-

$199

$299 - - 3 MP cam, video, 2X faster, voice

-

iPhone 3Gs

-

-

-

-

-

-

$149

$199 - - -

6/10

iPhone 3Gs

-

-

-

-

-

$99

x

x - - -

1/11

iPhone 3Gs

-

-

-

-

-

$49

x

x - - -

10/11

iPhone 3Gs

-

-

-

-

-

$0

x

x - - - (free with 2 year contract)

6/10

iPhone 4

-

-

-

-

-

-

$199

$299 - - 5 MP cam, front cam, thinner

10/11

iPhone 4

-

-

-

-

-

$99

x

x - -  

10/11

iPhone 4S

-

-

-

-

-

-

$199

$299 $399 - A5, 8 MP cam, Siri

9/12

iPhone 4

-

-

-

-

-

$0

x

x - - - (free with 2 year contract)

9/12

iPhone 4S

-

-

-

-

-

-

$99

- - - -

9/12

iPhone 4S

-

-

-

-

-

$0

-

- - - -

9/12

iPhone 5

-

-

-

-

-

-

$199

$299 $399   4" wide, A6, 8 MP cam, LTE

9/13

iPhone 5s

-

-

-

-

-

-

$199

$299 $399   64-bit A7, Touch ID

9/13

iPhone 5c

-

-

-

-

-

-

$99

$199 -   Plastic case, colors
                         

1/10

iPad WiFi

-

-

-

-

-

-

$499

$599

$699

- 9.7" display, 1.5/1.6 lbs

1/10

iPad -3G

-

-

-

-

-

-

$629

$729

$829

- -

3/11

iPad 2 WiFi

-

-

-

-

-

-

$499

$599

$699

- 2 cameras, 1.3 lbs

3/11

iPad 2 3G

-

-

-

-

-

-

$629

$729

$829

- -

3/12

iPad 2 WiFi

-

-

-

-

-

-

$399

- - - (same 10/12)

3/12

iPad 2 3G

-

-

-

-

-

-

$529

- - - -

3/12

iPad 3 WiFi

-

-

-

-

-

-

$499

$599

$699

- Retina display. 5MP cam, 4G LTE

3/12

iPad 3 3G

-

-

-

-

-

-

$629

$729

$829

- -

10/12

iPad 4 WiFi

-

-

-

-

-

-

$499

$599

$699

$799 Retina display. 5MP cam, 4G LTE

10/12

iPad 4 3G

-

-

-

-

-

-

$629

$729

$829

$929 - (128GB 1/13)
                      -  

10/12

iPad mini WiFi

-

-

-

-

-

-

$329

$429

$529

- 7.9" display. 5MP, 4G LTE

10/12

iPad mini 3G

-

-

-

-

-

-

$459

$559

$659

- -

Apple iPod Generations and Pricing  (9/12)

shuffle: $100 for 512 MB to 4 GB -- in 4 years
nano:   $200 for 2 GB to 16 GB -- in 3 years (... plus other improvements)

See Apple Support - Identifying iPod models

iPod

Flash

512M

1GB

2GB

4GB

6GB

8GB

16G

32G

64G

 

2/04

Mini 1

-

-

-

$249

 

 

 

 

 

mono, 3.6 oz. (HD)

2/05

Mini 2

-

-

-

$199

$249

 

 

 

 

1.67", 3.6 oz. (HD)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/05

shuffle

$99

$149

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.78 oz.

6/05

shuffle

$99

$129

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3/06

shuffle

$69

$99

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9/06

shuffle 2

-

$79

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.55 oz new

9/07

shuffle 2

-

$79

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5 colors

2/08

shuffle 2

-

$49

$69

 

 

 

 

 

 

new 2 GB

3/09

shuffle 2

-

-

-

$79

 

 

 

 

 

4 G, VoiceOver, 0.38 oz

9/09

shuffle 3

-

-

$59

$79

 

 

 

 

 

0.38 oz, playlists, controls on cord

9/10

shuffle 4

-

-

$49

-

 

 

 

 

 

0.44 oz, control wheel

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9/05

nano

-

-

$199

$249

-

-

-

-

-

1.5" color,176x132,1.5oz

2/06

nano

-

$149

$199

$249

-

-

-

-

-

-

9/06

nano 2

-

-

$149

$199

-

$249

-

-

-

brighter, 1.41 oz

9/07

nano 3

-

-

-

$149

-

$199

-

-

-

2" 320x240, 1.74 oz.

9/08

nano 4

-

-

-

-

-

$149

 $199

-

-

2" 320x240, 1.3 oz.

9/09

nano 5

-

-

-

-

-

$149

 $179

-

-

2.2", 1.28 oz., camera,
speakers, mic, FM radio

9/10

nano 6

-

-

-

-

-

$149

 $179

-

-

1.54", 0.74 oz., Multitouch, clip
Music - no video, cam, or mic

10/11

nano 6

-

-

-

-

-

$129

 $149

-

-

Larger icons, built-in fitness

9/12

nano 7

-

-

-

-

-

-

 $149

-

-

2.5" widescreen, Bluetooth

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9/07

touch

-

-

-

-

-

$299

$399

-

-

3.5" 480x320, 4.2 oz

2/08

touch

-

-

-

-

-

$299

$399

$499

-

-

9/08

touch 2

-

-

-

-

-

$229

$299

$399

-

-

9/09

touch 3

-

-

-

-

-

$199

-

$299

$399

4.05 oz., Voice control

9/10

touch 4

-

-

-

-

-

$229

-

$299

$399

3.56 oz., Retina display, HD cam

10/11

touch 4

-

-

-

-

-

$199

-

$299

$399

-

9/12

touch 4

-

-

-

-

-

-

$199

-

$249

-

13

touch 4

-

-

-

-

-

$229

-

-

-

-

9/12

touch 5

-

-

-

-

-

-

$299

-

$399

4" Retina, 5 MP iSight, A5, Siri


Samsung P3 - Touch-screen, haptic, Bluetooth  (1H 09)

Touchscreen player with haptic feedback. Bluetooth for wireless listening plus phone calls

  • Video player, audio player, photo album
        Personal voice recorder, FM radio, portable storage drive 
  • Available first half of 2009, 4, 8, 16, 32 GB, matte black and matte silver finishes
  • 3-inch WQVGA TFT-LCD touch screen, widescreen 16:9 aspect ratio
  • Make calls through Bluetooth phone, use built-in mic to answer calls through player
  • Integrated speakers
  • Updated Samsung EmoTure touch interface with true haptic feedback
        Swipe finger to switch audio tracks, hold digital button to fast-forward video
        Reacts with a variety of physical sensations for a more intimate user experience 
  • Updated Samsung DNSe 3.0 sound enhancement for natural, full-bodied sound
  • 0.39 inches thin
  • www.samsung.com

Internet Radio - Slacker Portable Player (09)

           Internet radio on a portable player - Customized "channels" of music 

Slacker G2 Portable Player 
  • Automatically refreshes stations over USB or Wi-Fi
  • Listen to favorite customized channels on the go
  • Radio-like -- play in order, limited skips, can't skip backwards
  • Artist bios, reviews
  • Also can store 1 GB personal library, with full access
  • 4 GB $199 (25 stations / 2500 songs), 8 GB $249 (40 stations / 4000 songs)
  • www.slacker.com/products/everywhere

SanDisk slotMusic Card - Alternate physical Media format (10/08)

    Music on physical media with size, convenience - Play in portable devices, millions of mobile phones

Maybe there's still a place for a new physical purchased music format. The SanDisk slotMusic card, introduced for the 2008 holiday season with some 40 "albums" from the major labels. The card plays in zillions of mobile phones with microSD slots, and can be copied and played on PCs and other devices without any copy protection issues (it's a standard microSD card with plain old MP3 files)..

The SanDisk slotRadio card format, released in Aplril 2009, fills a card with a thousand songs, professionally organized into genres and themes. It presents a lean-back "radio-like" experience -- just select the type of music that you're interested in hearing.


SanDisk slotMusic Player (10/08)

  • Plays music from any microSD card, MP3 & WMA (DRM-free)
  • 10/08 - $19.99 - No display, no built-in memory, under 2 oz.
  • 16 GB cards = up to 4,000 MP3 songs
  • slotMusic cards: microSD, DRM-free MP3 music
        Preloaded music "album" -
    dozen MP3 tracks, like CDs
        1 GB, $14.99, like CD

SanDisk slotRadio Player (4/09)

  • Player $99.99 bundled with 1,000 song slotRadio card
  • 1.5" OLED screen, FM radio, No built-in memory
  • Plays slotRadio, slotMusic, or microSD cards
  • slotRadio cards $39.99: 1,000 songs, genre-specific & themed
        Copy protected: will be supported on future mobile phones
        Only work with SanDisk slotRadio Player and Sansa Fuse

Top


Digital Cameras Displace Film

Flash memory displaced film at a rapid pace in the early 2000's


As with other analog to digital transitions, photo film and chemical developing just cannot compete with digital for mass-market advantages: convenience (no chemicals), immediacy (no developing), experimentation (no limited roll of shots).

Even inexpensive cameras now feature plenty of resolution (megapixels) and auto-everything advanced features to help you avoid taking bad shots. With multi-gigabyte memory cards, you can just keep shooting away, and then easily upload your photos to edit and share.


Digital Camera Market: Film to Digital

Digital cameras displaced film at a rapid pace in the early 2000's


    Courtesy Futuresource Consultingwww.futuresource-consulting.com


Digital Camera Chronology & Products



Apple QuickTake 100 Digital Camera for Macintosh  (1994) - 0.3 MP, 1 MB, $750

Consumer digital camera, with serial cable to PC. 24-bit color, binocular-shaped


  • Image sizes: 320 x 240 (standard res), 640 x 480 (high res) - ~ 0.3 MP
  • 1MB Flash memory: Store up to 32 standard-res or 8 high-res images
  • Automatic exposure, shutter speeds from 1/30 to 1/175 of a second
  • Automatic flash, Aperture f2.8 to f16, Focus 4 feet to infinity
  • Optical viewfinder, LCD screen only for status information 
  • Connect to Macintosh with included serial cable, download images
        Rotate, crop, scale, save as PICT, TIFF, QuickTake formats
        Control camera from Macintosh, images appear on screen as taken
        Images can be stored in camera up to one year before downloading
  • 3 AA batteries, lasts 120 images (half with flash), ~ 1 lb.
  • 1994 - $750
  • 1995 - QuickTake 150 - PCs; 1997 - QuickTake 200 - camera-like
  • Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_QuickTake
  • Review reprint -
        http://systemfolder.wordpress.com/2009/01/10/rr-quicktake-100
  • QuickTake 100 for Macintosh: Description
        http://docs.info.apple.com/article.html?artnum=14659

Sony DSC G3 Cyber-shot Wi-Fi Digital Camera - 10 MP, touch panel (1/09)

Wireless camera for photo uploading, browsing online collections

Connect to photo sharing sites though Wi-Fi access points, public and personal, free and fee-based, secure and unsecured. Use integrated browser to link to photo and video sharing sites, access uploaded photos to display on camera. Includes free AT&T Wi-Fi access though 2012.


  • 1/09 - $499
  • 10.1 megapixel, 4X optical zoom, 3.5" wide touch panel
  • 4 GB internal memory, up to 16 GB Memory Stick DUO PRO
  • Digital Portable Photo Album, Organize by date
  • Intelligent Scene Recognition: 8 types of scenes
  • Face Detection: Up to 8 faces in scene, Prioritize children vs. adults
        Anti-blink: Take 2 shots, check for closed eyes, display warning
        Smile Shutter: Auto captures smile the moment it happens
  • Dynamic Range Optimizer (DRO)
        Determines best exposure and contrast in shooting environment
        Balances contrast in scenes with strong highlight and shadow
  • Double Anti-blur reduces camera shake blur, especially in low light
  • Just over 5/8" thin (16.4mm)
  • www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?...

    Find the Sony DSC G3 camera on Amazon.com


Eye-Fi - Wi-Fi-enabled SD Card for Digital Cameras (10/07)

Standard SD memory card, with built-in Wi-Fi networking to upload photos -- and videos

Automatically upload photos -- and now videos -- to computer on home network, or to photo sharing sites like Fickr or Facebook from public Wi-Fi system. Optional geotagging and Wayport Wi-Fi hotspot access.

  • Eye-Fi Home - Home Network  (5/08) - 3/09 $49
       
    2 GB; Wireless photo uploads to computer over home Wi-Fi network
  • Eye-Fi Share - WebShare  (original - 10/07) - 3/09 $59
      
      Plus - Unlimited upload photos to online sites over home Wi-Fi network
  • Eye-Fi Explore - Hot Spots  (5/08) ~ 3/09 - $99
       
    Plus - Hot Spot access for 1 year - More than 10,000 Wayport hotspots in the U.S. 
        Plus - Unlimited geotagging - Adds geographic location tags to photos 
  • Eye-Fi Share Video - 4 GB - $79 (3/09)
  • Eye-Fi Explore Video - 4 GB - $99 (3/09)
  • www.eye.fi

Find the Eye-Fi HomeEye-Fi Share, and Eye-Fi Explore on Amazon.com
Find the Eye-Fi Share Video and Eye-Fi Explore Video on Amazon.com


Samsung TL320 Digital Camera (4/09) - 12 MP, 3" OLED screen

3" AMOLED screen - Brighter display, can easily be viewed outdoors, even in direct sunlight
    Less power than traditional TFT-LCD, higher contrast ratio of 10,000:1
    Darker black levels, more vibrant colors, view at any angle

  • 12 MP, 24mm ultra-wide angle Schneider lens
  • 5x optical zoom, while recording
  • 3" AMOLED screen, 460,000-dot HVGA 
  • HD 720p video recording, HDMI, H.264 compression
  • Smart Auto - 11 scene modes
  • Smart Album - organize and search images - date, color tone, portraits
  • Face Detection (9 faces), Blink Detection (2nd shot if blinked), Smile Shot
        Beauty Shot (enhance and balance skin tones, remove blemishes)
  • PR 2/09 - www.samsung.com/us/news/newsRead.do?news_seq=12544
  • ~ 4/09 - $379

    Find the Samsung TL320 on Amazon.cpm

Top


Digital Camcorders Displace Videotape

Analog to Digital to Flash - Tape almost gone by 2009


Memory card camcorders are becoming increasingly popular, since they are so easy to carry and operate, and storage card prices have dropped enough to make it reasonable to carry along at least a small collection of spare cards. They typically offer a choice of good video quality (so you can shoot for an hour or two to eventually show on DVD), or longer shooting time (at lower quality, suitable for uploading clips to the Web).

Camcorder Digital Formats

  • Tape (Mini-DV): Proven, reliable, inexpensive, Easy to edit, Inexpensive archive
        But: Mechanical tape transport, clumsy to search / rewind
  • Disc (Mini DVD): Easy playback on set-top or computer, Inexpensive archive
        But: Multiple formats, Highly compressed MPEG-2
  • Hard Disk Drive (HDD): Fast search, fast transfer, multi-hour recording (100+ GB)
        But: Media is not removable, need to offload and save
  • Flash memory: Small and light, convenient, go everywhere, removable media
        But: Flash cards more expensive, lower capacity then HDD

Camcorder Market -- DVD, Hard Disk, Flash, Tape, Analog

Digital video has replaced analog tape, and flash is taking over the market

The other formats still are useful to fit specific needs -- DV tape for editing and archiving at higher quality, mini DVD for instant playback with no computer editing, and hard disk for built-in extended recording


    Courtesy Futuresource Consultingwww.futuresource-consulting.com


Video Camcorder Chronology & Products

VHS to 8mm analog - to Mini-DV and DVD digital - then Hard disk and Flash


Sony Handycam 8mm - 1989


Sony CCD-TR55 (1989)


Pocket Camcorders

Last year saw an explosion of consumer interest in pocket camcorders, lead by the Pure Digital Flip line -- These are small and light enough to carry anywhere (literally in your pocket), so they're always available to capture the fun. 


Pure Digital Flip [Cisco]

Simple, affordable digital camcorders for the mass market

Pure Digital has sold over 2 million units in the past two years, and this segment was further recognized in March with the announcement that Cisco is acquiring Pure Digital for approximately $590 million in stock.


  • One-click record, play, delete
  • Pop-out USB connector to upload to a computer
  • Built-in software to play, edit, convert, share
  • 10/08 - Sold over 1.5 million camcorders after one year, 
        #1 and #3 best-selling camcorders in the U.S. (NPD)
  •  www.theflip.com

Flip Video Mino (6/08)

  • $179 MSRP (2 GB / 60+ min.), in black or white
  • 1.5 inch , no-glare LCD color viewfinder (528 x 132), Transflective TFT
  • Power up in under 4 seconds
  • Internal, rechargeable battery, recharges from USB (not removable)
  • 3.94 x 1.97 x 0.63 in., 3.3 oz.
Find the Pure Digital Flip Video Mino on Amazon.com

Flip MinoHD (11/08)

  • $229 MSRP (4  GB / 60 min.), in black or custom design
  • Same design & size as Mino: 1.5 inch screen
  • Shoots HD video - 720p / 1280 x 720
  • 3.94 x 1.97 x 0.63 in., 3.3 oz.  -- same size as Mino!
Find the Pure Digital Flip MinoHD on Amazon.com

 


DXG USA

Compact and portable HD camcorders, with shooting options
  • Choice of video and photo resolutions
  • Many with internal memory + SDHC, NTSC / PAL / HDMI out
  • Many with LED light, photo flash; White balance, self-timer, macro mode
  • ArcSoft TotalMedia Extreme software
  • www.dxgusa.com / www.dxgtechusa.com

DXG-595V HD Camcorder - 1080p, 5X optical zoom  (1/09)

  • 1080p HD video - up to 1920  x 1080 x 30 fps, H.264
  • 5 MP, CMOS sensor
  • 3" display, $249 / $179
Find the DXG-595V Camcorder on Amazon.com

 

DXG-580V / 581V HD Camcorders - 1080p  (Q1/09)

  • 5 MP, CMOS sensor, Up to 8 MP stills (interpolated)
  • 580V - Horizontal - 3" display, $179
  • 581V - Vertical / upright - 2.5" display, $179 / $141

Find the DXG-580V and DXG-581V on Amazon.com

DXG-517V / 579V HD Camcorders - 720p  (Q1/09)

  • 5 MP sensor, Up to 8 MP (interpolated)
  • 517V - Horizontal - 2.5" display, 128 MB internal, 8 oz., $129/$99
  • 579V - Vertical / upright - 2.4" display, 32 MB internal, 4.8 oz., $99

Find the DXG-581V Camcorder on Amazon.com

DXG-125V All-Weather HD Camcorder - 720p  (~7/09)

  • All-terrain, all-weather, splash and weather-resistant
  • 1 MP sensor, Up to 3 MP (interpolated), 3 oz., $99, red, olive, camo
  • 2" display, 128 MB internal, SDHC up to 8 MP

DXG-566V Luxe Collection - Fashion - 720p  (~8/09)

  • HD technology and style: hop, hot, and haute
        Quilted: white, black, pink; Tartan / plaid
  • 3 in. display, 32 MB internal, SDHC up to 8 GB, $129
  • 5 MP sensor Up to 8 MP (interpolated)

Samsung Full-HD Flash Memory Camcorders

Swivel designs, SSD disk, 1080p

Samsung HMX-R10 - Angled (~5/09)

  • Ultra-compact, ergonomic design, smooth, curvy shape
         Unique form factor to hold camcorder more comfortably
         Lens angled at 25 degrees, reduces strain on wrist
  • ~5/09 - $549/$499
  • Full HD (1920 x 1080), 9 MP Photos (2880 x 1620)
  • 2.7 inch LCD, touch screen, swiveling
  • 5x optical zoom, Intelli-zoom lens 
  • Expandable memory SD/SDHC card slot
  • 1.5'" x 2.23" x 5.04", 0.51 lbs.
  • www.samsung.com/us/consumer/detail/detail.do?..

    Find the Samsung HMX-R10 on Amazon.cpm

  • HMX-H106 - ~5/09 - flagship 64 GB, 
        12 hours - $999/$899
  • HMX-H105 - ~3/09 - 32 GB SSD, 
  • HMX-H104 - ~3/09 - 16 GB SSD, 
  • HMX H100 - ~3/09 - 
        no internal storage - $629/$579

Samsung HMX-H106 - SSD (3/09)

  • 2.7 inch LCD, touch screen , swiveling 
  • Full HD (1920 x 1080), 4.7 MP photos (2880 x 1620), flash
  • 10x optical zoom, Optical Image Stabilizer
  • Internal Solid State Drive (SSD) + SD/SDHC card slot
        More lightweight and compact than HDD, operates silently, 
            very low heat emission
        No moving parts enhances reliability, 
            more durable and resistant to shock and vibrations
        Reduces power consumption (1/8th HDD)
        Faster, quicker boot-up and read/write speeds
  • Samsung proprietary swivel grip, control at low or high angles.
  • HD Time Lapse recording , save as single movie file
  • 2.48 x 2.4 x 5.06 in., 0.78 lbs.
  • www.samsung.com/us/consumer/detail/spec.do?

    Find the Samsung HMX-H106 on Amazon.cpm

Top


Camera Phones Displace Dedicated Cameras / Camcorders

Beyond mass penetration -- a camera in every phone


Mobile Phone Market Growth

Beyond mass market -- 2.5G to 3G


    From NAND Flash: The Ubiquitous Storage Medium, Samsung Semiconductor, 
                www.samsung.com/us/business/semiconductor
        Flash Memory Summit, 8/2008, www.flashmemorysummit.com


Flash Card Market Growth

Mobile phone passes digital camera


    From NAND Flash: The Ubiquitous Storage Medium, Samsung Semiconductor, 
                www.samsung.com/us/business/semiconductor
        Flash Memory Summit, 8/2008, www.flashmemorysummit.com


Verizon Wireless Samsung Flipshot (SCH-u900) - 3 MP Camera Phone (11/07)

         Find the Verizon Samsung Flipshot on Amazon.com

Top


On to Part 2: What's Next for Flash


Top